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Initially, Trump gave the impression to take a firm position regarding Ukraine. Following making threats of "significant consequences" in August should Russia's president carried on obstructing peace negotiations, he eventually enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered Putin's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European involvement, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

This proposal would essentially reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, like giving Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While keeping in place the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been failed to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, providing Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to resume the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would enable future conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its troops from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "All extremist ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has violated similar agreements in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "strong unified military response" if Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, restocking, and reinvading.

World Response

Another parallel deal according to sources would provide the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against additional hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not